09/26/2025
ED SAYS .... While there remains considerable uncertainty in the track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the Carolina coast early next week.
TROPICAL UPDATE
FRIDAY 12 PM 9.26.2025
Future Imelda is still poses a significant threat to the Carolinas, though the extent of the threat is still uncertain given the complex steering currents ahead.
FUTURE IMELDA INTENSITY - The tropical wave expected to develop into Imelda is near the eastern tip of Cuba right now and will move into the southeast Bahamas tonight. With very warm waters and light wind shear, conditions favor organization into a tropical storm by late Saturday. Additional strengthening is likely, and a low-end hurricane is possible Sunday or Monday. That said, models suggest that intrusions of dry air and eventually increasing wind shear could keep the system lopsided, limiting the potential for rapid intensification. At this point, a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane looks most likely.
FUTURE IMELDA TRACK - Models are in strong agreement that Imelda will track north, paralleling the Florida coast through the weekend. By Monday, however, the system reaches a fork in the road:
If separated from Humberto - Imelda would likely feel the pull of low pressure over the Southeast and high pressure over New England, curving into Georgia or the Carolinas.
If close to Humberto - interaction could stall Imelda offshore or even pull it out to sea.
At this time, the most likely outcome is a track into the Southeast coast, though the exact landfall point remains uncertain. Because the steering pattern is highly sensitive, even small shifts in track, intensity, or speed could produce very different outcomes. Once the system forms and Hurricane Hunters collect more data, we should have a clearer picture, likely by Saturday.
TIMING - Potential impacts could begin as early as Monday afternoon and last through Tuesday. This weekend is a good time to review your hurricane plan.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS - It’s still too early to pin down exact details, but if Imelda comes ashore, here’s what we may expect:
🌧 RAIN - Moisture drawn north from Imelda will interact with a stalled front, producing scattered downpours through the weekend with 1–3" possible. Widespread heavy rain is likely Monday and Tuesday, with localized totals of 10”+ possible along and just north of the track. Remember, the track could be well north or south of us, reducing impacts, or right over us with major impacts. Flooding will be a concern, even as the rain helps relieve drought conditions.
💨 WIND - Most guidance supports a strong tropical storm or low-end hurricane. The strongest winds will occur along and north of the center, capable of producing damage.
🌪 TORNADOES - The highest risk would be in the front-right quadrant of the storm (northeast of the center).
🌊 STORM SURGE - Coastal areas near and north of landfall face the greatest surge risk, with the storm’s perpendicular approach enhancing flooding potential. Areas south of the center could experience a “blow-out tide” as winds push water offshore.
BOTTOM LINE - While there remains considerable uncertainty in the track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the Carolina coast early next week.
