10/16/2026
Elon Musk unveiled the production-intent Roadster 2 on Thursday, Oct 15 at SpaceX's McGregor, Texas test site. A prototype hovered and performed a mid-air "kick flip," floating several feet over a Tesla Semi — powered by four cold-gas thrusters (compressed gas), per Tesla engineering chief Lars Moravy.
Three trims: Performance (road-ready, no thrusters), Thrust (race-ready), and Rocket (one-seat, "air ready," invite-only). Range is stated at 300+ miles — middling, and below Tesla's own Model 3.
Timeline and price are the story: production is now 2028, no price announced, and Musk said "This is not necessarily a safety-optimized car." Reservation terms: $5,000 fee for Performance (+$45,000 due in 10 days) and $5,000 for Thrust (+$245,000 due in 10 days).
Market reaction: TSLA climbed nearly 5% in Friday premarket (Oct 16) on the reveal.
Tesla paused Model 3 Premium orders in Canada on Monday, Oct 13, saying demand exhausted its quota for China-built vehicles. Ordering is expected to resume only when Canada issues more permits — around March 2027.
The pause hits the RWD Premium (from C$39,490) and AWD Premium (from C$49,990); only the Model 3 Performance (C$74,990) remains orderable. Shanghai-built Model 3s are also excluded from Canada's federal EV rebate.
Quota mechanics: Canada replaced its 100% surtax on Chinese EVs in March with a 49,000-vehicle/year quota at a 6.1% tariff. Window 2 (Sept 1–Feb 28) has 33,397 permits, yet only 328 vehicles had entered as of Oct 9 — a puzzle commentators say "doesn't add up."
Context: Tesla's Shanghai plant exported a record 132,978 vehicles in Q3.
In late September, NHTSA cut the light-duty fleet target to 34.9 mpg by 2031, down from the 50.4 mpg the prior administration had set. Congress had already eliminated non-compliance fines in 2025.
The rules also end credit trading — the system that let gas-heavy automakers buy credits from low/zero-emission makers like Tesla and Rivian. That removes a revenue stream for EV producers and eases pressure on legacy OEMs to build "compliance cars."
Analysts: TD Cowen's Itay Michaeli called the lower compliance costs "incremental earnings tail winds" worth "a few to several hundred million dollars" for legacy makers; John Murphy forecast hybrid share rising from ~14% to ~34% by the end of the decade and warned powertrain uncertainty forces automakers to hold far more cash.
The federal credit ended Sept 30, 2025. A year on, EVs are roughly 6% of US new-car sales, down from nearly 10% a year earlier — though a gas-price spike gave plug-ins a partial 2026 rebound.
Winners: Tesla, Toyota, Hyundai, Kia. Losers: GM, Ford, Volkswagen. Hybrid-heavy lineups are outperforming pure-EV portfolios.
H1 2026 EV volumes make the split concrete: Tesla 242,100, GM 56,679, Hyundai 26,936, Toyota 21,855, Ford 16,606, Kia 12,627, VW 3,768.