01/29/2022
Pleased be prepared if you are going to travel.
*** MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED ***
Where: St. Louis Missouri & Surrounding Region
When: Tuesday Night through Early Thursday
Primary Winter Precip Dates: 2/2/22 to 2/3/22
A rather Major Winter Storm continues to be right on track and ready to go gangbusters across much of the Hyperlocal Extreme Weather Viewing Region.
Now is the time to begin making preparations as this one has all the makings to be quite the doozy! Check those generators to make sure they are in working order should we lose power and have emergency items such as a Flashlight, Heat Source, and Plenty of Food Stocked.
As we have said all week, this is by no means looking to be your typical St. Louis Winter Storm. There are plenty of elements that could make this storm much more dangerous than most. Given the setup, as shown in the map below - Freezing Rain and Sleet look appear to also get in the mix. In fact, some of the latest data suggests impacts could be catastrophic where significant freezing rain occurs.
Right now that area concern remains just south of the STL Metro. Keep in mind we have a a few more days to go so that band will wobble some but at the moment - that part of the region needs to be especially concerned.
Closer to the STL Metro a Winter Mix appears more likely starting as all precipitation types however, the cold front should arrive sooner changing the majority of precipitation to a mix of snow and sleet going to all snow but could still see a lighter coating of freezing rain at onset so keep that in mind.
Further North, precipitation may begin as a mixed bag but will likely quickly changeover to a big long duration snow.
It will not be snowing the entire time and there will likely be several breaks as waves of energy come and go so don’t let your guard down if it stops and you think it’s over…. It’s not!
This storm has the earmarks to be a historical event for our region. In fact, almost the entire region appears to reach Winter Storm Warning criteria in terms of Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain or a Combination of the Above. For some areas, those totals could reach warning criteria for each category!!
This is certainly a storm system that everyone should monitor very closely as a dangerous situation could very easily unfold. Accumulations are downright insane based on latest guidance so choosing not to post them to keep public chaos to a minimum and rather, chose to go with a general probability map indicative of the most predominant precipitation type.
Snow and Sleet Totals will likely be significant for many areas on the order of 6 to 12” Inches with Freezing Rain Ice Accretions potentially reaching Catastrophic Damage Levels equal to or greater than 1/2”. Hopefully in some miracle we can get some more cold air involved to decrease those totals to some less damaging sleet before most everyone ends as snow.
As far as snowfall accumulation maps go… There’s plenty out there floating around but I would caution all of you not to buy into any single one as they are NOT ACCURATE this far out. The energy from this storm is still off the Pacific Coast and has not even made landfall for true air sampling not to mention it still has to get sheared apart going over the Rockies. It appears we will have a much better idea for snow, sleet, and ice totals come Sunday Night / Early Monday. At that point we will release our expected accumulation map. If some of the latest guidance is correct, some areas Could Exceed 1 Foot of snow but certainly want more time to analyze that possibility given it would be extremely rare for that to occur around these parts so a general 6 to 12” is the way to go for our northern ~2/3rds of the region with some potentially seeing a bit more/less.
Again, this has all the makings of a very impactful and potentially historic storm for the St. Louis region. This is one you WILL want to stay up to date on. Stay tuned!!
This forecast is sponsored by First Choice Facilities. Specializing in Commercial Snow and Ice Management. Now is the time to make your preparations. Give them a call for all your Commercial Winter Needs!
