18/08/2026
120,000 new residential units are scheduled for delivery in Dubai this year. That is the biggest supply wave the city has seen in over a decade. So rents should crash, right?
Not exactly. Here is what is actually happening.
→ 131,234 units are scheduled for 2026, roughly 99,686 apartments and 15,284 villas → But only 24,800 were actually delivered in H1. Just 41% of what was planned → Between 2022-2024, only 56% of projected units were ever completed → Realistic delivery for full year 2026: somewhere between 38,000 and 48,000 units
Meanwhile, rents already dropped 6.2% in Q2 2026 according to CBRE. Sale prices dipped 4% quarter on quarter. Transactions fell 29% compared to Q2 2025.
But here is the catch. Not all areas are equal.
→ Downtown Dubai rents: forecast -1.39% → Al Barsha rents: forecast -1.07% → Dubai Marina rents: still growing at +7.85% → Dubai Hills Estate: climbing at +8.47% → Discovery Gardens: surging at +11.99%
And the demand side? 161,000 new residents moved to Dubai in just the first 6 months of 2026. Population now sits at 4.74 million. The city needs roughly 150 new homes every single day just to keep pace.
The market is not crashing. It is splitting. Oversupplied apartment communities are softening. Villas and prime locations are holding firm. Two different Dubais forming in the same city.
Are you renegotiating your rent this year, or waiting for a bigger drop?
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